Abstract: This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for linear fracture mechanics analysis of cracked structures. The main focus is on probabilistic aspect related to the nature of crack in material. The methodology involves finite element analysis; statistical models for uncertainty in material properties, crack size, fracture toughness and loads; and standard reliability methods for evaluating probabilistic characteristics of linear elastic fracture parameter. The uncertainty in the crack size can have a significant effect on the probability of failure, particularly when the crack size has a large coefficient of variation. Numerical example is presented to show that probabilistic methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation provides accurate estimates of failure probability for use in linear elastic fracture mechanics.

Key words: Probabilistic fracture mechanics, Linear elastic fracture mechanics, Failure probability, First-order reliability methods

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