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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A
ISSN 1673-565X(Print), 1862-1775(Online), Monthly
2014 Vol.15 No.6 P.454-464
Emission inventory and trends of NOx for China, 2000–2020
Abstract: The rapid growth of NOx emissions in China is mainly due to intensive fossil fuel consumption. In order to control NOx emissions, a multiyear NOx emission inventory was established by a bottom-up approach for the period 2000–2010. The results showed that NOx emissions increased by 2.1 times from 11.81 million tons (Mt) in 2000 to 24.33 Mt in 2010. We found that NOx emissions had exceeded SO2 emissions in 2009 by comparison with their emission trends. We also found that the unbalanced NOx emissions in Eastern China and Western China are mainly due to the different gross regional product and industrial structure. Accounting for 70% of total energy consumption in China, coal is the largest NOx emission source among all the fossil fuels. In addition, the increased use of diesel and gasoline has spurred the increase of NOx emissions from the transportation sector. Manufacturing, electricity production, and transportation together composed about 90% of the national NOx emissions. Meanwhile, energy consumption and NOx emissions in China are predicted to be 3908.5 Mt standard coal equivalent (SCE) and 19.7 Mt in 2020 with this scenario analysis, respectively. To achieve a desired NOx reduction target, China should take strict measures to control NOx emissions, such as improvement in reduction technology, promulgation of new emission standards, and joint control by various Chinese provinces.
Key words: NOx, Emission inventory, Scenario prediction, Energy consumption, China
Chinese Summary <41> 2000–2020年中国氮氧化物排放清单及排放趋势
创新要点：分析了中国主要省份产业结构对氮氧化物排放量的影响；根据不同情景分析，预测2020年中国氮氧化物的排放量。
研究方法：1.基于自底向上法，根据不同类型化石燃料的氮氧化物排放因子，结合化石燃料消耗量，建立中国2000–2010年氮氧化物排放清单；2.基于IPAT方程，并以中国2000–2010年的国内生产总值增长数据和氮氧化物排放量为依据，分三种情景，分析2011–2020年中国能源消耗和氮氧化物排放趋势。
重要结论：2010年中国氮氧化物的排放量约是2000年的两倍；自2009年起，中国氮氧化物总排放量超过了二氧化硫总排放量；主要由于产业结构和地区生产总值的不同，中国东部和西部氮氧化物排放量有明显差异；制造业、电力行业和交通运输业是中国氮氧化物的主要排放源，其中交通运输业氮氧化物排放量呈现逐年增长趋势；预计2020年中国氮氧化物排放量为19.7 Mt。
关键词组：
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DOI:
10.1631/jzus.A1300379
CLC number:
X511
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On-line Access:
2014-06-04
Received:
2013-11-20
Revision Accepted:
2014-04-22
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2014-05-21
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