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ISSN 2095-9184 (print), ISSN 2095-9230 (online)

Quant 4.0: engineering quantitative investment with automated, explainable, and knowledge-driven artificial intelligence

Abstract: Quantitative investment (abbreviated as “quant” in this paper) is an interdisciplinary field combining financial engineering, computer science, mathematics, statistics, etc. Quant has become one of the mainstream investment methodologies over the past decades, and has experienced three generations: quant 1.0, trading by mathematical modeling to discover mis-priced assets in markets; quant 2.0, shifting the quant research pipeline from small “strategy workshops” to large “alpha factories”; quant 3.0, applying deep learning techniques to discover complex nonlinear pricing rules. Despite its advantage in prediction, deep learning relies on extremely large data volume and labor-intensive tuning of “black-box” neural network models. To address these limitations, in this paper, we introduce quant 4.0 and provide an engineering perspective for next-generation quant. Quant 4.0 has three key differentiating components. First, automated artificial intelligence (AI) changes the quant pipeline from traditional hand-crafted modeling to state-of-the-art automated modeling and employs the philosophy of “algorithm produces algorithm, model builds model, and eventually AI creates AI.” Second, explainable AI develops new techniques to better understand and interpret investment decisions made by machine learning black boxes, and explains complicated and hidden risk exposures. Third, knowledge-driven AI supplements data-driven AI such as deep learning and incorporates prior knowledge into modeling to improve investment decisions, in particular for quantitative value investing. Putting all these together, we discuss how to build a system that practices the quant 4.0 concept. We also discuss the application of large language models in quantitative finance. Finally, we propose 10 challenging research problems for quant technology, and discuss potential solutions, research directions, and future trends.

Key words: Artificial general intelligence; Artificial intelligence; Automated machine learning; Causality engineering; Deep learning; Feature engineering; Investment engineering; Knowledge graph; Knowledge reasoning; Knowledge representation; Model compression; Neural architecture search; Quant 4.0; Quantitative investment; Risk graph; Explainable artificial intelligence

Chinese Summary  <6> Quant 4.0:基于自动化、可解释、知识驱动人工智能的量化投资工程

郭健1,3,王赛卓1,2,倪明选2,3,沈向洋1,2
1粤港澳大湾区数字经济研究院,中国深圳市,518045
2香港科技大学,中国香港特别行政区,999077
3香港科技大学(广州),中国广州市,511453
摘要:量化投资(quant)是一个结合了金融工程、计算机科学、数学、统计学等学科的交叉领域。在过去几十年里,量化投资已成为主流投资方法之一,并经历了三代发展:第一代量化投资(quant 1.0)通过数学建模交易发现市场中被错误定价的资产;第二代量化投资(quant 2.0)将量化研究流程从小型"策略作坊"转移到大型"alpha工厂";第三代量化投资(quant 3.0)应用深度学习技术发现复杂的非线性定价规则。尽管在预测方面有其优势,但深度学习技术的成功仍依赖于极大的数据量,并需要大量人工劳动来对这些神经网络"黑箱"模型进行调优。为解决这些限制,本文提出"quant 4.0"的概念,并从工程视角展望下一代量化投资技术。Quant 4.0有3个关键组成部份。首先,自动化人工智能(AI)基于"算法产生算法,模型建立模型,AI创造AI"的理念,将量化策略研发流程从传统的手工建模转变为先进的自动化建模。其次,可解释AI技术能够更好地理解和解释由机器学习黑箱模型做出的投资决策,并解释复杂和隐藏的风险暴露。第三,知识驱动AI能够与以深度学习为代表的数据驱动AI互补,将先验知识纳入建模过程,从而提升量化方法在价值投资等场景下的表现。同时,综合以上3个要素,我们讨论如何将"quant 4.0"的理念实现为一个具体的系统。此外,讨论了大型语言模型在量化投资中的应用。最后,提出量化投资领域10个具有挑战性的问题,讨论了潜在解决方案、研究方向和未来趋势。

关键词组:通用人工智能;人工智能;自动机器学习;因果关系工程;深度学习;特征工程;投资工程;知识图谱;知识推理;知识表示;模型压缩;网络结构搜索;Quant 4.0;量化投资;风险图谱;可解释人工智能


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DOI:

10.1631/FITEE.2300720

CLC number:

TP391

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On-line Access:

2024-12-26

Received:

2023-10-20

Revision Accepted:

2024-12-26

Crosschecked:

2024-02-19

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