Abstract: Predicting future heart rate (HR) not only helps in detecting abnormal heart rhythms but also provides timely support for downstream health monitoring services. Existing methods for HR prediction encounter challenges, especially concerning privacy protection and data heterogeneity. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel HR prediction framework, PCFedH, which leverages personalized federated learning and prototypical contrastive learning to achieve stable clustering results and more accurate predictions. PCFedH contains two core modules: a prototypical contrastive learning-based federated clustering module, which characterizes data heterogeneity and enhances HR representation to facilitate more effective clustering, and a two-phase soft clustered federated learning module, which enables personalized performance improvements for each local model based on stable clustering results. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach over state-of-the-art methods, achieving an average reduction of 3.1% in the mean squared error across both datasets. Additionally, we conduct comprehensive experiments to empirically validate the effectiveness of the key components in the proposed method. Among these, the personalization component is identified as the most crucial aspect of our design, indicating its substantial impact on overall performance.

Key words: Federated learning; Heart rate prediction; Prototypical contrastive learning

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