Abstract: Using large cross-sectional datasets that were collected in the Osaka metropolitan area (OMA), Japan, this study systematically analyzes the structural changes in car ownership and usage in the OMA from 1970 to 2000. A simultaneous equations model system is developed for individuals that considers age, household lifecycle stage, built environment of the household location, car ownership levels, proportion of car trips on a given day, and total car travel duration. The estimation results show that private car ownership and car usage for the residents in OMA have expanded over time. Each residential area, each lifecycle stage, and each age group has their own unique characteristics of car ownership and car usage. The results further indicate that this expansion is largely due to changes in their structural relationships, while the changes in demographic factors play a relatively small and contradictory role.

Key words: Urban car travel, Family lifecycle, Structural change, Simultaneous equations model system

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