Abstract: This study focuses on revealing the relationship between uncertainty and investment probability through real option model involving investment critical trigger and project earning. Use of Matlab software on the experimental results showing that project earning volatility influences investment probability, led the authors to conclude that this notion is not always correct, as increasing uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment, and that in certain situation, increasing uncertainty actually increases the investment probability and so, should have positive impact on investment.

Key words: Investment, Uncertainty, Real option, Stochastic process

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