Abstract: A general procedure is proposed to estimate the reliability of a dual-span rotor based on nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty. First, the vibration equation of the rotor with random uncertainty is constructed based on random matrices through the nonparametric modeling approach. Second, the reliability estimation is then performed by response spectral analysis and the moment method. By making full use of the advantages of nonparametric method and response spectral analysis, not only is the requirement on probability density function (PDF) avoided, but also the first and second moments are no longer needed to be estimated or assumed for calculating the reliability. Finally, the statistical index Z^*-value based on short-term predictability is introduced to investigate the influence of random uncertainties on the reliability of the dual-span rotor. Illustrating examples show that the results obtained from the proposed procedure are consistent with those from short-term predictability, such that dangerous ranges can be well identified during the start-up process of the rotor.

Key words: Random uncertainty; Nonparametric model; Reliability; Response spectral analysis

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