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CLC number: TH113.1

On-line Access: 2024-08-27

Received: 2023-10-17

Revision Accepted: 2024-05-08

Crosschecked: 2018-01-31

Cited: 0

Clicked: 6184

Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714

 ORCID:

Chun-biao Gan

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6597-5605

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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2018 Vol.19 No.3 P.189-202

http://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.A1600340


Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor


Author(s):  Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang, Shi-xi Yang

Affiliation(s):  State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems, College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China; more

Corresponding email(s):   cb_gan@zju.edu.cn

Key Words:  Random uncertainty, Nonparametric model, Reliability, Response spectral analysis


Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang, Shi-xi Yang. Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2018, 19(3): 189-202.

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DOI - 10.1631/jzus.A1600340


Abstract: 
A general procedure is proposed to estimate the reliability of a dual-span rotor based on nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty. First, the vibration equation of the rotor with random uncertainty is constructed based on random matrices through the nonparametric modeling approach. Second, the reliability estimation is then performed by response spectral analysis and the moment method. By making full use of the advantages of nonparametric method and response spectral analysis, not only is the requirement on probability density function (PDF) avoided, but also the first and second moments are no longer needed to be estimated or assumed for calculating the reliability. Finally, the statistical index Z*-value based on short-term predictability is introduced to investigate the influence of random uncertainties on the reliability of the dual-span rotor. Illustrating examples show that the results obtained from the proposed procedure are consistent with those from short-term predictability, such that dangerous ranges can be well identified during the start-up process of the rotor.

The central topic of this paper is the study of the reliability of a dual span rotor based on the nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty. With what appears to be well conducted mathematical derivation and numerical verification, the authors establish some interesting results, which states that the reliability calculation can be continued without knowing discrete movements by their procedure, and also, a large amount of information needed for determining the PDF is avoided in the reliability analysis. From their simulation results, the safe or failure ranges of the dual-span rotor system can be clearly estimated from the curves of the proposed reliability indices. The results are certainly of important significance for random uncertainty modeling and reliability analysis of rotating machinery.

双跨转子的随机不确定性非参数建模与可靠性分析

目的:旋转机械由于工作环境复杂,在运行过程中会不可避免地受到各种不确定性因素的影响,从而引发转子系统的异常振动.因此,迫切需要对系统工作状态开展可靠性分析.本文将外部扰动不确定性与模型不确定性考虑在内,旨在建立转子系统运行状态的可靠性评估指标,丰富转子动力学理论体系,为工程应用提供参考.
创新点:1. 采用非参数法进行建模,能够将外部扰动不确定性与模型不确定性同时包含在内; 2. 在非参数建模基础上,结合响应谱分析法进行可靠性计算,可避免对系统先验知识的需求并降低计算过程的复杂性; 3. 将短周期预测理论扩展应用于可靠性分析验证.
方法:1. 借助非参数法建立转子系统的随机不确定性模型; 2. 结合响应谱分析法推导出系统可靠性指标计算式; 3. 采用短周期预测方法对模拟数据统计指标进行计算与验证.
结论:1. 本方法可用于评估大型复杂旋转机械系统的可靠性,尤其对于服役时间较长导致系统参数出现不确定性变化的情形; 2. 本研究结果可为大型复杂旋转机械的设计、运行和控制提供理论基础,同时也可以为其他类型机械设备的可靠性分析和预测方法提供参考.

关键词:随机不确定性;非参数建模;可靠性;响应谱分析

Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article

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