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Abstract: construction simulation is an effective tool to provide schedule plans for construction schedule management. The simulation parameter is the foundation of construction simulation for high arch dams. However, the updating construction simulation parameters of the commonly used Bayesian algorithm are constant and inconsistent with the construction process. Due to the lack of construction data, the construction data are not sufficient for the bayesian updating algorithm. Thus, the construction simulation of high arch dams based on fuzzy bayesian updating algorithm is proposed. The construction parameters for a dynamic site construction situation are collected, and the original data are fuzzed by fuzzy set theory to provide the foundation for a variety of simulation parameters during the simulation process. Moreover, with the bayesian updating algorithm, the fuzzed simulation parameters are updated and obtained via the selection of the membership degree. Finally, the construction simulation of high arch dams is conducted based on the updated simulation parameters. A case study shows that the updated simulation parameters are more in accordance with the construction parameters in situ than the original parameters, which can provide a foundation for the change of simulation parameters during the simulation process, and the simulation results are agreed with the actual construction situation.

基于模糊贝叶斯更新的高拱坝施工进度仿真

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