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Abstract: Recent years have seen a surge in assessment of potential impacts of climate change. As one of the most important tools for generating synthetic hydrological model inputs, weather generators have played an important role in climate change impact analysis of water management. However, most weather generators like statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and long Ashton research station weather generator (LARS-WG) are designed for single site data generation. Considering the significance of spatial correlations of hydro-meteorological data, multi-site weather data generation becomes a necessity. In this study we aim to evaluate the performance of a new multi-site stochastic model, geo-spatial temporal weather generator (GiST), in simulating precipitation in the qiantang River Basin, East China. The correlation matrix, precipitation amount and occurrence of observed and GiST-generated data are first compared for the evaluation process. Then we use the GiST model combined with the change factor method (CFM) to investigate future changes of precipitation (2071–2100) in the study area using one global climate model, Hadgem2_ES, and an extreme emission scenario RCP 8.5. The final results show that the simulated precipitation amount and occurrence by GiST matched their historical counterparts reasonably. The correlation coefficients between simulated and historical precipitations show good consistence as well. Compared with the baseline period (1961–1990), precipitation in the future time period (2071–2100) at high elevation stations will probably increase while at other stations decreases will occur. This study implies potential application of the GiST stochastic model in investigating the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources.

多站天气发生器在中国东部钱塘江流域降雨模拟的评估

研究目的：以空间相关系数、降雨量和降雨次数为指标，利用实测的气象数据，评估一个新的多站天气发生器GiST在中国东部钱塘江流域模拟降雨的性能。在此基础上，结合全球气候模式Hadgem2-ES，分析在浓度路径RCP 8.5下GiST模拟2071–2100年的降雨情况。
创新要点：通过评估一个新的多站发生器在模拟降雨方面的性能，以此来提高未来气候情景预测的精度。
研究方法：用多站天气发生器和变化因子方法，重点结合CMIP5中的Hadgem2-ES模型，模拟钱塘江流域七个站点的基准期以及未来预测期降雨量和空间相关性，并作出评估。
重要结论：多站天气发生器GiST能很好地模拟钱塘江流域的降雨以及其空间相关性。该工具有潜力作为水资源管理，极端事件分析，政府决策、水文模型以及气候变化研究的工具。

关键词：多站天气发生器；全球气候模式；降雨模拟

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