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Abstract: The rapid growth of NO _x emissions in china is mainly due to intensive fossil fuel consumption. In order to control NO _x emissions, a multiyear NO _x emission inventory was established by a bottom-up approach for the period 2000–2010. The results showed that NO _x emissions increased by 2.1 times from 11.81 million tons (Mt) in 2000 to 24.33 Mt in 2010. We found that NO _x emissions had exceeded SO₂ emissions in 2009 by comparison with their emission trends. We also found that the unbalanced NO _x emissions in Eastern china and Western china are mainly due to the different gross regional product and industrial structure. Accounting for 70% of total energy consumption in china, coal is the largest NO _x emission source among all the fossil fuels. In addition, the increased use of diesel and gasoline has spurred the increase of NO _x emissions from the transportation sector. Manufacturing, electricity production, and transportation together composed about 90% of the national NO _x emissions. Meanwhile, energy consumption and NO _x emissions in china are predicted to be 3908.5 Mt standard coal equivalent (SCE) and 19.7 Mt in 2020 with this scenario analysis, respectively. To achieve a desired NO _x reduction target, china should take strict measures to control NO _x emissions, such as improvement in reduction technology, promulgation of new emission standards, and joint control by various Chinese provinces.

2000–2020年中国氮氧化物排放清单及排放趋势

研究目的：建立2000–2020年中国氮氧化物排放清单，了解中国主要行业和省份氮氧化物的排放情况，为评估氮氧化物的环境影响和制定相关减排政策提供依据。
创新要点：分析了中国主要省份产业结构对氮氧化物排放量的影响；根据不同情景分析，预测2020年中国氮氧化物的排放量。
研究方法：1.基于自底向上法，根据不同类型化石燃料的氮氧化物排放因子，结合化石燃料消耗量，建立中国2000–2010年氮氧化物排放清单；2.基于IPAT方程，并以中国2000–2010年的国内生产总值增长数据和氮氧化物排放量为依据，分三种情景，分析2011–2020年中国能源消耗和氮氧化物排放趋势。
重要结论：2010年中国氮氧化物的排放量约是2000年的两倍；自2009年起，中国氮氧化物总排放量超过了二氧化硫总排放量；主要由于产业结构和地区生产总值的不同，中国东部和西部氮氧化物排放量有明显差异；制造业、电力行业和交通运输业是中国氮氧化物的主要排放源，其中交通运输业氮氧化物排放量呈现逐年增长趋势；预计2020年中国氮氧化物排放量为19.7 Mt。

关键词：氮氧化物；排放清单；情景分析；能源消耗；中国

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