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Abstract: Bridge resistance and reliability may deteriorate with time due to aggressive environmental conditions and increasing road freight volumes, resulting in an increase of potential economic loss. This is thus a great concern to decision-makers managing the bridges’ continued future service. Reasonable models of bridge resistance and applied loads are the fundamentals of accurate estimation/prediction of a bridge’s serviceability. In this paper, a new model for resistance deterioration is proposed, which enables the non-increasing property and auto-correlation in the stochastic deterioration process to be incorporated. To facilitate the practical application of the model, methods to determine its parameters using obtained data on structural resistance are developed and illustrated through simple numerical examples. time-dependent reliability analysis is conducted using the proposed resistance deterioration model based on Monte Carlo simulation, and the effect of auto-correlation in the deterioration process on structural time-dependent reliability is investigated.

This paper focuses on proposing a model for strength degradation of bridge structures by ensuring the non-decreasing nature of the deterioration problem (thereby respecting the physics of the problem), and incorporating autocorrelation in the deterioration process. The paper is technically sound, wherein all the equations have been well presented and explained. Additionally the inclusion of the derivations in the appendix is helpful for the detail. The application of the proposed methodology and calibration method using the numerical examples is also commendable.

用于桥梁时变可靠度分析的承载力衰减新模型

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