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CLC number: TU312

On-line Access: 2016-09-08

Received: 2015-12-20

Revision Accepted: 2016-03-24

Crosschecked: 2016-08-23

Cited: 1

Clicked: 3828

Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714


Cao Wang


Quan-wang Li


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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2016 Vol.17 No.9 P.677-688


Estimating the time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information

Author(s):  Cao Wang, Quan-wang Li, Long Pang, A-ming Zou

Affiliation(s):  Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; more

Corresponding email(s):   wangcao12@tsinghua.org.cn, li_quanwang@tsinghua.edu.cn

Key Words:  Time-dependent reliability, Deterioration model, Error quantification, Averaged reliability, Structural safety

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Cao Wang, Quan-wang Li, Long Pang, A-ming Zou. Estimating the time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2016, 17(9): 677-688.

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%A Cao Wang
%A Quan-wang Li
%A Long Pang
%A A-ming Zou
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T1 - Estimating the time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information
A1 - Cao Wang
A1 - Quan-wang Li
A1 - Long Pang
A1 - A-ming Zou
J0 - Journal of Zhejiang University Science A
VL - 17
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SP - 677
EP - 688
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PB - Zhejiang University Press & Springer
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DOI - 10.1631/jzus.A1500342

The performance of an aging structure is commonly evaluated under the framework of reliability analysis, where the uncertainties associated with the structural resistance and loads should be taken into account. In practical engineering, the probability distribution of resistance deterioration is often inaccessible due to the limits of available data, although the statistical parameters such as mean value and standard deviation can be obtained by fitting or empirical judgments. As a result, an error of structural reliability may be introduced when an arbitrary probabilistic distribution is assumed for the resistance deterioration. With this regard, in this paper, the amount of reliability error posed by different choices of deterioration distribution is investigated, and a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the averaged structural reliability under incomplete deterioration information, which does not rely on the probabilistic weight of the candidate deterioration models. The reliability for an illustrative structure is computed parametrically for varying probabilistic models of deterioration and different resistance conditions, through which the reliability associated with different deterioration models is compared, and the application of the proposed method is illustrated.

The manuscript examines the effect of different probabilistic models (uniform, normal, inverse-lognormal, beta and Gamma distributions) of resistance deterioration on structural time-dependent reliability. Three methods (two methods follow the study of Tang et al. 2015) are adopted to evaluate the structural time-dependent reliability under incomplete probability information. The manuscript is beneficial to structural reliability analysis under incomplete probability information.


创新点:1. 假定衰减函数服从5种常见的概率分布,讨论可靠度分析结果的差异;2. 当衰减函数的概率分布(或各概率分布的权重)未知时,提出平均可靠度的分析方法。
结论:1. 不同的衰减函数概率分布对结构可靠度的影响显著;2. 利用本文提出的方法,在衰减函数概率的分布(或各概率分布的权重)未知时,可以得出结构可靠度的合理评估。


Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article


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