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CLC number: TH113.1

On-line Access: 2018-03-05

Received: 2016-04-27

Revision Accepted: 2017-06-07

Crosschecked: 2018-01-31

Cited: 0

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Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714


Chun-biao Gan


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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2018 Vol.19 No.3 P.189-202


Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor

Author(s):  Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang, Shi-xi Yang

Affiliation(s):  State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems, College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China; more

Corresponding email(s):   cb_gan@zju.edu.cn

Key Words:  Random uncertainty, Nonparametric model, Reliability, Response spectral analysis

Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang, Shi-xi Yang. Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2018, 19(3): 189-202.

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author="Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang, Shi-xi Yang",
journal="Journal of Zhejiang University Science A",
publisher="Zhejiang University Press & Springer",

%0 Journal Article
%T Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor
%A Chun-biao Gan
%A Yue-hua Wang
%A Shi-xi Yang
%J Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A
%V 19
%N 3
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%@ 1673-565X
%D 2018
%I Zhejiang University Press & Springer
%DOI 10.1631/jzus.A1600340

T1 - Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor
A1 - Chun-biao Gan
A1 - Yue-hua Wang
A1 - Shi-xi Yang
J0 - Journal of Zhejiang University Science A
VL - 19
IS - 3
SP - 189
EP - 202
%@ 1673-565X
Y1 - 2018
PB - Zhejiang University Press & Springer
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DOI - 10.1631/jzus.A1600340

A general procedure is proposed to estimate the reliability of a dual-span rotor based on nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty. First, the vibration equation of the rotor with random uncertainty is constructed based on random matrices through the nonparametric modeling approach. Second, the reliability estimation is then performed by response spectral analysis and the moment method. By making full use of the advantages of nonparametric method and response spectral analysis, not only is the requirement on probability density function (PDF) avoided, but also the first and second moments are no longer needed to be estimated or assumed for calculating the reliability. Finally, the statistical index Z*-value based on short-term predictability is introduced to investigate the influence of random uncertainties on the reliability of the dual-span rotor. Illustrating examples show that the results obtained from the proposed procedure are consistent with those from short-term predictability, such that dangerous ranges can be well identified during the start-up process of the rotor.

The central topic of this paper is the study of the reliability of a dual span rotor based on the nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty. With what appears to be well conducted mathematical derivation and numerical verification, the authors establish some interesting results, which states that the reliability calculation can be continued without knowing discrete movements by their procedure, and also, a large amount of information needed for determining the PDF is avoided in the reliability analysis. From their simulation results, the safe or failure ranges of the dual-span rotor system can be clearly estimated from the curves of the proposed reliability indices. The results are certainly of important significance for random uncertainty modeling and reliability analysis of rotating machinery.


创新点:1. 采用非参数法进行建模,能够将外部扰动不确定性与模型不确定性同时包含在内; 2. 在非参数建模基础上,结合响应谱分析法进行可靠性计算,可避免对系统先验知识的需求并降低计算过程的复杂性; 3. 将短周期预测理论扩展应用于可靠性分析验证.
方法:1. 借助非参数法建立转子系统的随机不确定性模型; 2. 结合响应谱分析法推导出系统可靠性指标计算式; 3. 采用短周期预测方法对模拟数据统计指标进行计算与验证.
结论:1. 本方法可用于评估大型复杂旋转机械系统的可靠性,尤其对于服役时间较长导致系统参数出现不确定性变化的情形; 2. 本研究结果可为大型复杂旋转机械的设计、运行和控制提供理论基础,同时也可以为其他类型机械设备的可靠性分析和预测方法提供参考.


Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article


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