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Abstract: suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and customers acting within a single period. The single owner of the manufacturing plants signs a contract with each of the suppliers to satisfy demand from downstream. Available contracts consist of long-term and option contracts, and unmet demand is satisfied by purchasing from the spot market. In this supply chain, customer demand, supplier capacity, plants and warehouses, transportation costs, and spot prices are uncertain. Two models are proposed here: a risk-neutral two-stage stochastic model and a risk-averse model that considers risk measures. A solution strategy based on sample average approximation is then proposed to handle large scale problems. Extensive computational studies prove the important role of contracts in the design process, especially a portfolio of contracts. For instance, we show that long-term contract alone has similar impacts to having no contracts, and that option contract alone gives inferior results to a combination of option and long-term contracts. We also show that the proposed solution methodology is able to obtain good quality solutions for large scale problems.

基于合约视角的不确定环境下的供应链网络设计

考虑不确定环境，从合约视角研究不同类型合约对供应链网络设计成本及库存级别的影响。 在供应链网络模型中考虑合约因素，并将现实条件假设为不确定参数，包括客户需求、供应商供货能力、以及制造商、仓库、运输、采购等费用。 考虑两阶段随机规划（公式（3）），将条件风险价值作为风险衡量准则从而引入风险规避机制（公式（4））。采用样本均值近似化方法解决大规模供应链网络设计问题。 （1）随机模型下供应链网络平均成本降低，仿真结果接近真实值；（2）在不考虑合约尤其是期权合约时，供应链网络中可能出现偏离实际的成本，从而导致设计质量下降；（3）供应链网络成本在考虑所有类型合约组合时最低，其次是期权合约；长期合约下的成本与传统模型（无合约）不相上下（图4）。
供应链网络设计；合约；不确定性；条件风险价值

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