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Abstract: Motor vehicles are the major source of urban air pollution. The abatement of air pollutant emissions is an urgent task for environmental protection. This paper simulated the abatement for carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO _x ), and particular matter (PM) emissions from vehicles under four scenarios in the year 2015 in Hangzhou, China. It was found that the emissions of CO, VOCs, NO _x , and PM from vehicles were 440.551, 23.079, 44.255, and 6.532 kt/a in 2010 in Hangzhou, respectively. The vehicle population will increase to over 1.2 million with a 60.7% growth rate until 2015 (estimated). Based on the scenario analysis, it was found that eliminating substandard vehicles and upgrading vehicle’s standards could help reduce CO and VOCs effectively, while the expected abatement of NO _x and PM would be offset by the rapid increase in the vehicle numbers. It was also found that integrated measurements, including eliminating substandard vehicles, upgrading vehicle standards, supplying low sulfur oil, and introducing alternative fuel vehicles could simultaneously reduce the four key pollutants. These integrated policies make it possible to reduce 250.197, 10.270, 1.791, and 0.335 kt/a CO, VOCs, NO _x , and PM with 56.79%, 44.50%, 4.05%, and 5.14% decrease rates in 2015, respectively, when compared to those in 2010.

杭州市机动车污染物排放的减排情景研究

研究目的：预测机动车保有量；根据机动车污染特征，预测机动车污染物排放量；评估不同管理措施下机动车污染物的削减效果。
创新要点：综合不同管理措施，整合评价多种管理措施并行条件下，机动车污染物排放量的削减情况。
研究方法：通过长期能源替代计划（LEAP）模型对机动车保有量进行预测，相关排放因子采用校正的能源替代（AER）模型进行估算。最后设计四个情景模式，评估不同情景的减排效果，并与基础情景进行对比。
重要结论：1. 至2015年杭州市机动车将增长60.7%。2. 淘汰超标机动车和提高机动车污染排放标准能有效控制CO和VOCs，而对NO_x和PM的总量削减效果不明显。3. 采用多种控制手段，如淘汰劣化超标机动车、提高机动车排放标准、提供低硫代燃油及引进能源替换型机动车将大大减少机动车污染物的排放量。
削控策略；减排；情景分析；机动车保有量

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