CLC number: R739.5
On-line Access:
Received: 2008-03-11
Revision Accepted: 2008-04-08
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Borislav D. DIMITROV, Mariana I. RACHKOVA, Penka A. ATANASSOVA. Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science B, 2008, 9(6): 489-495.
@article{title="Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity",
author="Borislav D. DIMITROV, Mariana I. RACHKOVA, Penka A. ATANASSOVA",
journal="Journal of Zhejiang University Science B",
volume="9",
number="6",
pages="489-495",
year="2008",
publisher="Zhejiang University Press & Springer",
doi="10.1631/jzus.B0820076"
}
%0 Journal Article
%T Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity
%A Borislav D. DIMITROV
%A Mariana I. RACHKOVA
%A Penka A. ATANASSOVA
%J Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE B
%V 9
%N 6
%P 489-495
%@ 1673-1581
%D 2008
%I Zhejiang University Press & Springer
%DOI 10.1631/jzus.B0820076
TY - JOUR
T1 - Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity
A1 - Borislav D. DIMITROV
A1 - Mariana I. RACHKOVA
A1 - Penka A. ATANASSOVA
J0 - Journal of Zhejiang University Science B
VL - 9
IS - 6
SP - 489
EP - 495
%@ 1673-1581
Y1 - 2008
PB - Zhejiang University Press & Springer
ER -
DOI - 10.1631/jzus.B0820076
Abstract: Background: Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx:172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50~7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences compared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity. Methods: Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964~1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied. Results: Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various ‘hypercycles’ were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=−10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed. Conclusion: The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors could not only allow for better forecasting models but also lead to a better understanding of melanoma aetiology.
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