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Abstract: This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for a tension leg platform (TLP), named hybrid fuzzy-statistical process control (SPC) model, which provides more precise estimation than other commonly used methods. The hybrid fuzzy-SPC model is designed to follow risk source identification and establishment of risk index groups. It has three components: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and SPC theory. In comparison to applying only one of the three, the hybrid fuzzy-SPC model usually results in reduction in uncertainties and subjectivities. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the AHP are used to obtain several independent risk evaluation scheme results. Then, based on the SPC theory, a practitioner is able to derive a confidence interval using the central limit theorem. This will largely mitigate risks and enable preventive action before a platform loses floating attitude.

This work presents a methodology based on fuzzy, analytic hierarchy process, and statistical process control theories to assess floating attitude risk of TLP. Fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy processes are general approaches used in project management, especially for risk management. The new ideas of this work are the confidence evaluation and the evaluation risk index group with simply variables. They are interesting, and the work is in worth of attention.

基于模糊统计过程控制模型的张力腿平台漂浮姿态的风险评估

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