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Abstract: The performance of an aging structure is commonly evaluated under the framework of reliability analysis, where the uncertainties associated with the structural resistance and loads should be taken into account. In practical engineering, the probability distribution of resistance deterioration is often inaccessible due to the limits of available data, although the statistical parameters such as mean value and standard deviation can be obtained by fitting or empirical judgments. As a result, an error of structural reliability may be introduced when an arbitrary probabilistic distribution is assumed for the resistance deterioration. With this regard, in this paper, the amount of reliability error posed by different choices of deterioration distribution is investigated, and a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the averaged structural reliability under incomplete deterioration information, which does not rely on the probabilistic weight of the candidate deterioration models. The reliability for an illustrative structure is computed parametrically for varying probabilistic models of deterioration and different resistance conditions, through which the reliability associated with different deterioration models is compared, and the application of the proposed method is illustrated.

The manuscript examines the effect of different probabilistic models (uniform, normal, inverse-lognormal, beta and Gamma distributions) of resistance deterioration on structural time-dependent reliability. Three methods (two methods follow the study of Tang et al. 2015) are adopted to evaluate the structural time-dependent reliability under incomplete probability information. The manuscript is beneficial to structural reliability analysis under incomplete probability information.

非完整衰减信息下的劣化结构时变可靠度评估

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